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Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.3% pass rate.The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.The model projects Dalton Kincaid to garner 7.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last year, Dalton Kincaid has been rising this year, currently pacing 46.0 per game.Dalton Kincaid's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 35.1.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The fewest plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).Dalton Kincaid's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 81.6% to 64.0%.Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.76 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
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