Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
With a sizeable 67.1% Route Participation% (75th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 4.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Dalton Kincaid checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing a fantastic 94.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
With a lackluster 3.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in football in picking up extra yardage.

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