Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 4.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (75.1%) to TEs since the start of last season (75.1%).

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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