Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2023

Updated Dec 24, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are projected by the projection model to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.9 per game) this year.
This week, Dalton Kincaid is predicted by the projections to place in the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 5.2 targets.
With a remarkable 17.2% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the tight ends with the highest volume in the league.
When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 31.0 per game.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are overwhelmingly favored by 12.5 points.
The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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