Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 21, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2025 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-137/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.6 plays per game.
In this week's game, Dallas Goedert is projected by the projections to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets.
Dallas Goedert's 48.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 38.4.
Dallas Goedert comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.
The projections expect the Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 25.9 per game) this year.
The Commanders linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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