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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to total 5.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Dallas Goedert comes in as one of the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 4.4 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Dallas Goedert's 84.4% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a material improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 73.8% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 4 points.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.04 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.

Dallas Goedert has gone out for fewer passes this season (70.0% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (87.6%).

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