Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
With a remarkable 88.3% Route% (100th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert places as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the league.
In this contest, Dallas Goedert is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
Dallas Goedert's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 80.2% to 73.0%.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's group of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

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