Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.40 seconds per snap.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 91.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
With a terrific 4.1 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert has been among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.1% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
Dallas Goedert's 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a a substantial reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.2% mark.
The Jets pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus tight ends this year (69.2%).

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