Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) against the Eagles defense this year, averaging 26.21 seconds per play.
The projections expect Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.5 per game) this year.
Dallas Goedert's 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 40.0.
Dallas Goedert's receiving talent has declined this year, notching a mere 3.2 adjusted receptions vs 4.5 last year.

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