Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Dallas Goedert is projected by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.3 targets.
The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Dallas Goedert ranks as one of the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
This year, the shaky Seahawks pass defense has surrendered a whopping 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per play.
Dallas Goedert's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.0.
Dallas Goedert's 75.2% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 80.2% figure.

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