Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to garner 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 18.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Dallas Goedert has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (68.3%).

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