Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.40 seconds per snap.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 91.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When it comes to air yards, Dallas Goedert grades out in the towering 87th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a remarkable 36.0 per game.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.1% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
Dallas Goedert has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (58.0).
Dallas Goedert's 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a a substantial reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.2% mark.

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