Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Dallas Goedert is projected by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.3 targets.
Dallas Goedert has put up a staggering 29.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Dallas Goedert comes in as one of the top tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Eagles being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.45 seconds per play.
Dallas Goedert's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.0.
Dallas Goedert's 43.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a material reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season's 58.0 figure.