Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 86.8% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In this week's game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Dallas Goedert's 44.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season reflects a significant regression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 58.0 figure.
Dallas Goedert's 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a remarkable regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 80.2% rate.
Dallas Goedert's 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a substantial decline in his pass-catching talent over last year's 10.4 figure.

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