Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 87.6% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accumulate 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.7%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (67.7%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 6.66 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.