Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (87.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (76.1%).
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Dallas Goedert has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (69.4%) to TEs this year (69.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 2.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

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