Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles will be rolling with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
Dallas Goedert has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (86.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (76.1%).
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has notched quite a few less air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (52.0 per game).
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 29.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (54.5%) vs. tight ends this year (54.5%).

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