Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-304).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +203.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.2% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a huge 13.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Dallas Goedert has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 43.8.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) to TEs this year (64.9%).

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