Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-338).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +219.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.2% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Dallas Goedert has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 43.8.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.5%) vs. TEs this year (66.5%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the league to tight ends: 0.14 per game this year.

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