Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-290).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert has notched quite a few less air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert's 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 43.8.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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