Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+248/-402).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -402.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has notched a whopping 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for tight ends.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (68.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 6th-least TDs through the air in football to TEs: 0.25 per game since the start of last season.

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