Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-315).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has notched a monstrous 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert's 42.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.26 per game since the start of last season.

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