Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-351).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -309 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -351.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (16.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.1% in games he has played).
Dallas Goedert has posted a monstrous 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert's 42.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 93rd percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 9th-least TDs through the air in football to TEs: 0.28 per game since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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