Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-108/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.1 per game) this year.
Dak Prescott's 70.8% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant progression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 65.4% figure.
This year, the porous Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a staggering 2.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

With a 48.2% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-least pass-focused team in football in these situations has been the Dallas Cowboys.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.

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