Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Dak Prescott has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.75 per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has surrendered the 5th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.62 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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