Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.89 seconds per play, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
Dak Prescott's 5.47 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year reflects a meaningful gain in his rushing skills over last year's 3.95 mark.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 7.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 3rd-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the strong Eagles run defense has given up a mere 88.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best in football.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Philadelphia's unit has been great this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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