Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys as the 4th-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Dak Prescott's ground efficiency has been refined this year, notching 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.95 figure last year.
With a fantastic total of 3.17 yards-after-contact (85th percentile), Dak Prescott ranks among the best running QBs in football this year.
The Giants defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, yielding 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
The Giants defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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