Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Dak Prescott's running efficiency (3.95 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (23rd percentile among quarterbacks).
The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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