Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:59 PM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (15.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.1% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Dak Prescott has been among the best QBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.02 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 5th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 36.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dak Prescott's running effectiveness (3.94 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (22nd percentile among quarterbacks).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 92 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.