Dak Prescott Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Dak Prescott's 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a material progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 65.4% figure.
The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the worst group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Dak Prescott to throw 32.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

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