Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.8% run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to total 2.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs and TEs.
The Commanders are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and Curtis Samuel has received 9.1% of rush attempts this year (99th percentile).
Curtis Samuel has averaged 15.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among wide receivers and tight ends (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the least yards in the league (just 74 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.

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