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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

The Rams cornerbacks profile as the 8th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.8 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 54.2 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

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