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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Curtis Samuel's 84.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a a substantial gain in his receiving ability over last season's 74.2% rate.

Since the start of last season, the weak Chicago Bears pass defense has given up a colossal 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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