Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

My Account Log Out

reorder

Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Curtis Samuel's 84.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a a substantial gain in his receiving ability over last season's 74.2% rate.
Since the start of last season, the weak Chicago Bears pass defense has given up a colossal 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

More Curtis Samuel Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow