Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
Curtis Samuel has been among the best possession receivers in the league, completing an impressive 75.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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