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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.0 (+135/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Commanders to be the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

With an excellent 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (75th percentile) this year, Curtis Samuel stands as one of the top WRs in the league in the NFL.

With a terrific 73.7% Adjusted Completion% (91st percentile) this year, Curtis Samuel has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

Curtis Samuel has been used less as a potential target this season (62.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.5%).

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (58.5%) vs. WRs this year (58.5%).

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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