Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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