Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to notch 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense this week (20.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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