Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup quarterback Sam Howell in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.