Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-186/+144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +142 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Curtis Samuel has been a more important option in his team's pass game this year (18.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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