Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-161/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this year (18.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.8%) to WRs this year (61.8%).

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