Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-106/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (75.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (75.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.