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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+110/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -141.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (35.3 per game) since the start of last season.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

With an exceptional 73.5% Adjusted Catch% (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Curtis Samuel rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.

Since the start of last season, the deficient Jaguars defense has been gouged for a staggering 157.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 10th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 123.1 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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