Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
After accumulating 35.0 air yards per game last year, Curtis Samuel has been rising this year, currently averaging 40.0 per game.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Curtis Samuel's 71.2% Route Participation% this season represents a a noteable drop-off in his pass game volume over last season's 81.5% figure.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) to wideouts this year.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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