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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Commanders to be the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

After totaling 35.0 air yards per game last year, Curtis Samuel has undergone big improvement this year, now boasting 40.0 per game.

With a terrific 73.7% Adjusted Completion% (91st percentile) this year, Curtis Samuel has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

Curtis Samuel has been used less as a potential target this season (62.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.5%).

This year, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a meager 129.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-fewest in the league.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (58.5%) vs. WRs this year (58.5%).

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