Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 66.2% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year.
This week, Curtis Samuel is expected by the projection model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.5 targets.
After totaling 35.0 air yards per game last year, Curtis Samuel has shown good development this year, now boasting 41.0 per game.

Favors Under

Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
Curtis Samuel has been less involved as a potential target this season (61.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (81.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (56.1%) to wide receivers this year (56.1%).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.26 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

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