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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.

After averaging 35.0 air yards per game last year, Curtis Samuel has seen a big uptick this year, currently sitting at 41.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.

Curtis Samuel has run fewer routes this season (60.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.5%).

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.46 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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