Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to garner 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging just 6.65 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 15th percentile among wide receivers
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 117.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 7.68 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.

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