Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (+104/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to earn 7.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Curtis Samuel has been a more important option in his offense's passing offense this season (22.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.8%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 6.56 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 129.0) versus wide receivers this year.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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