Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to notch 7.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Curtis Samuel has been a more important option in his team's pass game this year (22.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least effective receivers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.87 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 20th percentile among WRs
The Chicago Bears defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 137.0) to wideouts this year.

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