Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (22.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 57.0 yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging just 6.54 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 19th percentile among wideouts
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.